SJMcCormick
Opportunity comes to the prepared mind
Investing

A collection of frameworks that shape how I approach investing. This section focuses on fundamentals and first principles - less about what to buy and more about how to think.

📘Foundations

The rules of the game - risk, time, incentives, compounding.

How Prices Get Set

Why knowing something is not the same as being paid for it

What Risk Actually Means in Investing

Why volatility is a poor proxy for danger

What Valuation Is Actually For

Translation, not precision

Why Process Matters More Than Outcome

Learning in a probabilistic world

Interest Rates as the Tide Beneath Assets

Why the price of money shapes everything else

🧠Mental Models for Uncertain Markets

Probabilities, decision-making, and staying rational under pressure.

Thinking in Probabilities

Expected value and process over prediction

Margin of Safety

Defend against being precisely wrong.

Circle of Competence

Developing expertise

Time Arbitrage

Patience is your edge

Capital Cycle Thinking

Check the supply side

A Loser’s Game

Unforced errors

The Art of Contrary Thinking

It's warmer in the herd

📊Valuation Tools & Models

Tools for translating narratives into numbers.

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

The gold standard of valuation.

Relative Valuation

Comparison and context

Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Cash returned to shareholders.

Reverse DCF

What's already priced in?

EV/EBITDA and Friends

Operating performance & market expectations

🌍Economics & Macro

Rates, cycles, liquidity, and the tide behind assets.

Placeholder

Coming soon

🇬🇧UK Investing

Vehicles, taxes, and practical compounding in the UK.

UK Investing

ISA's and how to use them

🗒️Field Notes

Experiential learning - what changed my mind, and what didn’t.

Lessons from Buffett’s Letters [Megathread]

Notes and reflections from the partnership years through Berkshire Hathaway (1957 - 2025)

Moving Averages and the Stories We Tell Ourselves

My love-hate relationship with technical analysis

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